# Introduction¶

The class of time series models that can be represented in state space form, allowing parameter estimation and inference, is very broad. Many of the most widespread reduced form time series models fall into this class, including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), vector autoregressions (VARs), unobserved components (UC), time-varying parameters (TVP), and dynamic factor (DFM) models. Furthermore, linear (or linearized) structural models are often amenable to representation in this form, including the important case of linearized DSGE models. This paper contributes to the literature on practical results related to the estimation of linear, Gaussian state space models and the corresponding class of time series models.

The great advantage of representing a time series as a linear, Gaussian state space model is due to existence of the celebrated Kalman filter ([15]), which at once provides optimal contempraneous estimates of unobserved state variables and also permits evaluation of the likelihood of the model. Subsequent developments have produced a range of smoothers and computational techniques which makes feasible a estimation even in the case of large datasets and complicated models. Elegant theoretical results can be developed quite generically and applied to any of the models in the state space class.

Mirroring this theoretical conservation of effort is the possibility of a practical conservation: appropriately designed computer programs that perform estimation and inference can be written generically in terms of the state space form and then applied to any of models which fall into that class. Not only is it inefficient for each practitioner to separately implement the same features, it is unreasonable to expect that everyone devote potentially large amounts of time to produce high-performance, well-tested computer programs, particularly when their comparative advantage lies elsewhere. This paper describes a method for achieving this practical conservation of effort by making use of so-called object oriented programming, with an accompanying implementation in the Python programming language. [1]

Time series analysis by state space methods is present in nearly every statistical software package, including commercial packages like Stata and E-views, commercial compuational environments such as MATLAB, and open-source programming languages including R and gretl. A recent special volume of the Journal of Statistical Software was devoted to software implementations of state space models; see [7] for the introductory article and a list of references. This is also not the first implementation of Kalman filtering and smoothing routines in Python; although many packages at various stages of development exist, one notable reference is the PySSM package presented in [31].

Relative to these libraries, this package has several important features. First, although several of the libraries mentioned above (including the Python implementation) use object-oriented techniques in their internal code, this is the first implementation to emphasize those techniques for users of the library. As described throughout the paper, this can yield substantial time saving on the part of users, by providing a unified interface to the state space model rather than a collection of disparate functions.

Second, it is the first implementation to emphasize interaction with an existing ecosystem of well-estabilished scientific libraries. Since state space estimation is a component of the larger Statsmodels package ([28]), users automatically have available many other econometric and statistical models and functions (in this way, Statsmodels is somewhat similar to, for example, Stata). It also has links to other packages; for example, in section 6 we describe Metropolis-Hastings posterior simulation using the Python package PyMC.

One practically important manifestation of the tighter integration of Statsmodels with the Python ecosystem is that this package is easy to install and does not require the user to compile code themselves (as does for example PySSM). Furthermore, while PySSM also uses compiled code for the performance critical filtering and smoothing operations, in this package these routines are written in a close variant of Python (see below for more details on “Cython”). This means that the underlying code is easier to understand and debug and that a tighter integration can be achieved between user-code and compiled-code.

Finally, it incorporates recent advances in state space model estimation, including the collapsed filtering approach of [14], and makes available flexible classes for specifying and estimating four of the most popular time series models: SARIMAX, unobserved components, VARMAX, and dynamic factor models.

One note is warranted about the Python code presented in this paper. In Python, most functionality is provided by packages not necessarily loaded by default. To use these packages in your code, you must first “import” them. In all the code that follows, we will assume the following imports have already been made

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import statsmodels.api as sm


Any additional imports will be explicitly provided in the example code. In any code with simulations we assume that the following code has been used to set the seed for the pseudo-random number generator: np.random.seed(17429).

The remainder of the paper is as follows. Section 2 gives an overview of the linear, Gaussian state space model along with the Kalman filter, state smoother, disturbance smoother, and simulation smoother, and presents several examples of time series models in state space form. Section 3 describes the representation in Python of the state space model, and provides sample code for each of the example models. Sections 4 and 5 describe the estimation of unknown system parameters by maximum likelihood (MLE) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, respectively, and show the application to the example models. Up to this point, the paper has been concerned with the implementation of custom state space models. However Statsmodels also contains a number of out-of-the-box models and these are described in section 6. Section 7 concludes. [2]

 [1] Among others, the programming environments MATLAB and R also support object oriented programming; the implementation described here could therefore, in principle, be migrated to those languages.
 [2] For instructions on the installation of this package, see Appendix A: Installation. Full documentation for the package is available at http://www.statsmodels.org.